Videcoast: Weekend cold front, monitoring the tropics

FORECAST SUMMARY: Dry air on the western side of Hurricane sally continues to produce mostly rain free conditions. Winds will remain out of the North/Northwest between 10-25 mph today, with higher gusts. Expect considerable cloud cover early, with partly cloudy skies this afternoon as a weak front pushes towards the coast. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat index values will be in the low and mid 90s. Aside from stray showers, expect mainly dry conditions.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY: Minor coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level will be possible through Wednesday afternoon for the immediate coastal areas of Southeast Louisiana including the tidal lakes and all of coastal Mississippi.

TODAY: Cloudy early, with a mix of sun and clouds afternoon. Breezy. Highs mid 80s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. A few passing clouds tonight. Lows in the mid 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Partly cloudy night. 20% chance of showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy after midnight. Lows In the mid 70s. North winds around 10 mph.

LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND: Another cold front will push across the region late Friday into Saturday. There will be a chance for a few isolated-to-scattered showers Thursday and Friday, with a few early am/afternoon showers left Saturday generally along I-10 and south. Slightly cooler and drier air will move into the area Saturday afternoon and through the remainder of the weekend behind the front as high pressure builds over the region. Highs will be in the low 80s, with lows in the mid 60s north and near 70 on the south shore.

NEXT WEEK: The NHC is monitoring a slow-moving disturbance (Invest 90L-see more below) over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This feature and the aforementioned cold front will play a role in the forecast next week. As of now, the front looks to stay tucked into the central Gulf into midweek next week. Global model guidance diverge on how far north the moisture will extend over the central and northern Gulf next week. The GFS brings moisture to the coast by Wednesday, while the Euro keeps the rain south of the coast through the end of the week. For now, I’ve gone with low chance of scattered showers daily. We could have increased tides/potential minor coastal flooding by next week. Expect a comfy early fall feel early in the week, with highs int the low and mid 80s while the overnight lows range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

TROPICS: There are currently three named tropical systems in the Atlantic and three disturbances being monitored for potential tropical development. One of these disturbances, Invest 90L, is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

SALLY: Hurricane Sally made landfall just before 5am CT Wednesday near Gulf Shores, AL with max winds of 105 mph. Sally is 8th named storm to make landfall in the continental U.S. so far in 2020. This is the most continental U.S. landfalling named storms on record through September 16. The old record was 7. Sally is the first hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since Ivan in 2004. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Weakening is expected as the center moves inland today and tonight. . Hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surge, very heavy rainfall, and a threat for tornadoes will continue through Wednesday for portions of the Central Gulf Coast region. As Sally moves slowly inland, significant flash and urban flooding, as well as minor to moderate river flooding, are likely to spread northward into Alabama, Northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. The latest forecast storm total rainfall from Sally calls for 10 to 20+ inches of rain with isolated 35 maximum over parts of Southeast U.S.

INVEST 90L IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS: Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

FAR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC: 3. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves southeastward and eastward at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

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